Mailbag: Where Do The White Sox Stand Heading Into The Deadline?
Back in March I asked followers on Twitter if they'd be interested in a semi-regular mailbag feature here. The results at the time were overwhelmingly "yes we would," so I did a mailbag.
That was in March.
Now, at the end of July, I've decided to do another one. So I guess that when I called it a "semi-regular" feature I meant every four months.
Anyway, with the trade deadline coming up, as well as all the Chris Sale insanity, I just thought now would be a good time to do it again, and considering how many questions were submitted in like 15 minutes, I wasn't wrong.
If they're going to be anything, they're going to be sellers. I know that Kenny Williams came around on Tuesday and was like "we don't know what we're going to be yet," but while so many Sox fans believe that Kenny is still pulling all the strings, and overseeing everything the Sox do, I believe it's the opposite.@WriteSox are the sox buyers or sellers— PCOLA SOX FAN (@giuffre_nick) July 27, 2016
I actually believe that while he's in the loop, the reason Kenny doesn't know whether or not the Sox are buyers or sellers is because he just doesn't know.
Rick Hahn knows. Rick Hahn isn't out in front of the media saying the team is "mired in mediocrity" and openly talking about the possibility of a rebuild if he doesn't know what he plans to do. Now, having said that, I have no doubt that the Sox aren't slowing things down right now due to this latest win streak.
But I don't believe that they're going to do anything to win in 2016. When Rick Hahn said that the only thing they aren't considering are rentals, I believe he meant it. So if there's a "buy" trade the Sox can make that will help them the rest of this season, as well as in 2017 or beyond, they might make it.
The most likely scenario, however, is that they sell off some of the minor parts. Guys who may not be all that important for 2017, or at the very least, help shed so me salary heading into the winter to give Hahn more to work with.
As I eluded to in the last answer, I believe that this is the most likely scenario. Hahn may have mentioned the possibility of a rebuild, but as I've said many times, I just don't think that's a realistic scenario with Jerry Reinsdorf still running things.@WriteSox How likely do you think it is that the Sox are selling, but only in terms of building for 2017?— Jonathan Latzke (@JonLatzke) July 27, 2016
All of that said, I do still believe that if somebody puts together a nice enough offer for him, Jose Quintana can be had.
It's pretty simple. If you want both Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, you're offering Chris Sale. Or you're offering Jose Quintana and David Robertson together as a package, and I really don't know if that latter package would be enough to get both considering the money remaining on Robertson's deal.@WriteSox What would it take to get Monconda and Benintendi from the Red Sox?— Mark Peterson (@MarkPetey) July 27, 2016
The Red Sox really value Moncada, and they say they value Benintendi, but I don't believe it's nearly enough as they do Moncada. So Moncada on his own will be expensive. The two of them more so.
I've gone over this before. If the White Sox were to suddenly make these guys available -- and right now Shields is available -- these are three names that could be a lot more appealing than a lot of other guys currently on the market.@WriteSox what kind of value can you get for trading guys like Frazier/Melky/Shields, and is a good rebuild realistic w/out trading Sale— Franco Pescatore (@DasFranc67) July 27, 2016
It's just that I don't believe you're going to get a great return for any of them. I believe Todd Frazier could net you a decent prospect, as could Melky. Shields won't get you much of anything, but whoever it is, there's a good chance it'll be a better return than what you gave up to get him.
The key here is, if you're moving these guys, what you're really doing is shedding salary heading into 2017. So it all depends on what -- if anything -- you'd plan to do with that available salary this winter, because you're lowering your prospects of contending in 2017 if you move these guys. You don't have ready made replacement for any of them, so where are those replacements coming from?
Trading Shields would just be trading Shields -- a guy you've only had for a few months, and you traded for when you thought you could contend.
Trading Melky or Frazier would signify something else.
The answer here is similar to that of the last question.@WriteSox What kind of trade value do you think the Sox can extract out of Jones and Duke if that go that route?— BoJake Horseman (@jmor761) July 27, 2016
Listen, if you trade Zach Duke, you're just getting yourself out of the $5.5 million he's still owed in 2017. You won't actually get a useful prospect in return for him. Instead you're looking at a lottery ticket.
As for Jones, I believe he has a lot more value to the White Sox as a White Sox than he does a trade chip. He's got a great arm, he's good, and he's signed for a while, but he's still a reliever that's not a "proven closer." If I'm the White Sox I'd much rather trade David Robertson and keep Jones to use as your closer in 2017.
I don't believe so, but if we don't see him at Wrigley tonight, it's time to get worried.@WriteSox is m&m guy dead?— Jeffery Michaelson (@michaelsonny65) July 27, 2016
I have to go with 2010.@WriteSox favorite season since 2005 (excluding 2008)— Sam Sherman (@Sam_Sherman5) July 27, 2016
They finished 88-74, and in second place. They were in first place in August, and blew it, but it didn't feel as bad as when they blew it in 2012, because it was more a result of them winning at a high rate in June and July. They crashed back to Earth in the final two months, but they didn't fall apart like that 2012 team did in September.
Plus, it was a renaissance year for Paul Konerko, and it was also the last good year John Danks had.
In a perfect world, Avisail Garcia is designated for assignment.@WriteSox Who do you send down when/if AJax comes back?— cm7com (@cm7com) July 27, 2016
In the real world, it's going to be J.B. Shuck.
Though I will say that, the later Austin Jackson returns, the greater the odds that he replaces Avisail on the roster. I mean, we've seen that the Sox are not pretty serious about only playing him against lefties as a designated hitter since Justin Morneau came along. It's possible that they're finally ready to move on, but I refuse to believe it before I see it.
I believe you're watching it right now, at least on a strictly financial level. No matter how thin the pitching market it, at this point, I don't see Shields commanding more on the open market than he's already getting.@WriteSox Is there a "happy medium" range where Shields pitches well but not well enough to opt out? And if so, what is it?— DHP (@DHP) July 27, 2016
If he opts out at this point, it won't be to chase more cash, but just to go back home to San Diego, or chase a ring somewhere.
He's 34 years old. Including this season, he's made $71 million in his career. He doesn't need the money, but when he left Kansas City to sign with San Diego, I thought it had a "retirement contract" feel. Shields was just going to San Diego to spend the last few years of his career pitching at home.
He might do that again this winter.
You have to go chainsaw, right? That would be the most satisfying, and make you feel the most powerful, wouldn't it? Maybe stabbing the jersey 100 times would feel good, but I can't help but feel nothing would make me feel better than a chainsaw.@WriteSox Given you had ANY (scifi or real, etc) cutting tool at your disposal, what tool would you use to hack up uncomfortable jerseys?— Mike Musary (@Muzzkill7) July 27, 2016
It's strange, because as badly as I want Robin Ventura gone, I haven't given this a ton of thought. Martinez remains my top choice, but after that, I don't know.@WriteSox After Sox fire Robin but don't hire Dave Martinez (too obvious) any managerial candidates you like?— Kevin Shannon (@LucianCharms) July 27, 2016
Whoever ends up getting the job, I just don't want it to be a former player that I care about, because there is no perfect manager. I'll agree with some of the things the new guy does, and I'll disagree with some of the things they do. I just don't want their ineffectiveness as a manager to put a cloud over my thoughts of them as a player.
Try as I might, no matter how much I loved Robin Ventura as a player, I'll never be able to think of Robin now and not think "but god he was so fucking awful as a manager."
Don't destroy anymore of my childhood heroes, White Sox!
It's really hard to answer this question without knowing who is still around.@WriteSox who do you want the sox to target in free agency/trades this offseason (assuming they dont sell)— Chicagothunder (@Chicagothund3r) July 27, 2016
In an ideal winter, I'd like to see the Sox make a legitimate run after guys like Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick. If you're serious about winning, get serious about spending money.
I'd love to get more in depth about this question, but it's just too early to really think about it beyond that. Find a real hitter, add some depth to the rotation, and just get me a legitimate catcher. He doesn't have to be great, but he has to be the kind of guy who is actually good at something as a catcher. Whether it be defensively, or offensively.
Something he can hang his hat on.